Focusing on the fundamentals will help energy leaders navigate volatility, writes Harbour Energy COO Nigel Hearne
When the world is stable, right-or-wrong decisions are possible. When it’s not, keeping your options open, argues Nigel during a roundtable discussion at ONS in Stavanger, Norway, in August 2026
More people need to be passionate about writing the ‘middle chapter’ of the energy transition for it to succeed, he says
More than three decades of experience have taught him to focus on the fundamentals, ask better questions and become comfortable with ambiguity
Volatility is nothing new in the energy sector.
More than 35 years in oil and gas have taught me that this has always been a cyclical, complex and globally connected industry.
But since the turn of the decade, a series of external shocks has created a more volatile and uncertain backdrop than usual. Covid-19 was swiftly followed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, conflict in the Middle East.
These shocks have disrupted energy supplies from major producing nations, and exposed vulnerabilities and chokepoints in the global energy system, giving rise to a renewed focus on the reliability and security of energy supplies.
Added to this are supply chain pressures, changing policy expectations and rapid technological development. It’s a potent mix, which is reshaping assumptions about supply, demand, security and the pace of transition.
Last month, it was a pleasure and a privilege to be in Stavanger, Norway, for one of the energy industry’s biggest conferences - ONS.
Participants in the roundtable discussion about ‘leadership in an uncertain energy world’ at ONS 2026’s Strategic Conference
I particularly enjoyed taking part in a roundtable, discussing “Leadership in an Uncertain Energy World” alongside Elisabeth Berntsen Gardum, Oleksii Riabchyn and Sheel Sood. The conversation was moderated by Ali Aslan and I’ve been reflecting on it since.
Here are my five suggestions for leading when the picture is complex and confusing.
1. Options over answers
Today, uncertainty is the only certainty.
Against this backdrop, our panel discussed how leaders should respond to a world that has become more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.
Well, to lean into the theme of ONS this year: leaders need to have the courage of our convictions about the fundamentals of our industry. The basics of energy demand and sound business management.
The world still needs more energy. Energy underpins economic growth, industrial competitiveness and living standards. Rising populations and a drive for higher living standards continue to propel demand.
In a stable world, you can make right-or-wrong decisions. In an uncertain world you need to consider what options you want to keep available.
It’s less about choosing the right answer and more about maintaining the flexibility that gives you the greatest chance of success over time.
What I try to focus on is doing the right thing in the long term and then finding a way to operationalise that in the short term.
Most of the time, if you do the right things consistently and stay grounded in your beliefs, you’ll get good outcomes.
2. Focus on the fundamentals
The practical reality of today’s world is that fossil fuels still accounted for over 80% of total energy supply in 2025, according to the latest Statistical Review of World Energy. And consumption of not only oil and gas, but also coal, grew too.
Even as lower-carbon solutions scale, oil and gas will remain a vital part of the energy system for decades.
As an industry, we are long-term investors in projects that span years and even decades. Our confidence and ability to invest in future production is based on these fundamental drivers of demand.
Increased uncertainty also requires business leaders to focus on getting the basics of good business management right. It’s more important than ever that we are resilient and competitive.
We build resilience and competitiveness by controlling the controllables.
In practical terms, that means delivering strong operational performance, keeping costs competitive and being disciplined around capital allocation.
Together, these will drive better risk management and more competitive performance.
Harbour Energy in the Norwegian Continental Shelf
A good example of this is Harbour Energy’s Dvalin North development in Norway. We safely started gas production ahead of schedule and under budget through a three-well subsea tie-back to existing infrastructure, in July.
Even amid uncertainty, projects like Dvalin North demonstrate how sustained ambition, teamwork and discipline helped Harbour to deliver stable, low-emission barrels while continuing to create value in our largest producing country.
With Norway providing a third of the European Union’s gas supply last year, we are proud to support the continent’s energy security while providing flexible gas supplies that back up renewables and help displace higher-emissions energy sources.
3. Write the middle chapter of the energy transition
The energy system is complex. What works in Europe won’t necessarily work in Asia. What works in North America may not work elsewhere.
Each country will have its own solution based on its resources, access to markets and access to capital. What we’ve discovered is that the system is far more ‘fragile’ than many people realised.
Around the world, 655 million people still live without electricity. Put simply, many people are just trying to switch the lights on.
So, as an industry, we have a responsibility to solve a very complex problem. We have to deliver energy security, affordability AND lower-carbon energy all at once.
The winners over time won’t be those who pick one side of the debate. They will be the people who figure out how to integrate all the energy solutions available to us.
There are people passionately writing the first few paragraphs of the transition story, and people passionately writing the last few paragraphs.
What we should now focus on is how to write the middle chapter, because that’s where innovation happens.
Seeing a high number of young people at ONS who want to join our industry gives me immense hope.
Young delegates at Harbour Energy's stand at the ONS conference in August 2026
4. Stay courageous and curious
If I were to meet my younger self, I'd probably advise him to learn to ask better questions rather than make strong statements.
To deal with ambiguity, leaders need to be able to process less-than-perfect data, think through different scenarios and plan for a range of possible outcomes. Often, we’re making decisions today that will play out over decades.
Leadership in this environment requires the courage to make decisions grounded in facts, pragmatism and long-term conviction, while retaining the ability to adapt as conditions change.
As an engineer, I still like having precise answers. But I’ve learned that asking better questions often gives you the insights you’re really looking for.
I’ve learned to live with more ambiguity. Am I entirely comfortable with it? No. But that’s part of leadership.
Harbour energy’s Salmanca asset in the US Gulf. More than 80% of emissions were avoided and time to production was speed up by repurposing an existing floating production facility, instead of building new
5. Leadership is a team effort
One final thought from me.
ONS is a great meeting place for our industry, and the skills, capabilities and enthusiasm I saw made me reflect on the human side of our business.
We are a capital-intensive industry, but we are also a people business. We benefit hugely from hearing diverse perspectives, close collaboration with partners and strong relationships with policymakers and regulators. Ultimately, it’s people who operate our platforms, deliver projects, manage risk and move our industry forward.
In an uncertain energy world, leadership is not about pretending to have all the answers. It is about being grounded in reality, clear about our purpose, disciplined in execution and ready to adapt.
That’s how we can deliver the energy the world needs today while helping build the energy system of tomorrow.